John Edwards has moved into a tie for second place with Barack Obama, according to today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll. I chalk it up to several factors -- Edwards' attacks on Obama on the campaign trail, and Obama's missteps.
Here are the latest results:
Clinton: 40%
Edwards: 18%
Obama: 18%
Edwards is gaining popularity in Iowa, too:
And when he went to the Iowa State Fair in mid-August, the local television station had a booth in which fairgoers were invited to show support by putting corn kernels in jars. Clinton had 4,342 kernels in hers; Edwards had 3,523 in his; Obama had 2,846 in his, less than Republican contender Mitt Romney.
The polls have also reflected Clinton’s national dominance. CNN’s in early August: Clinton 40 percent, Obama 21 percent. Rasmussen’s in late August: Clinton 39 percent, Obama 23 percent. People were getting to know Obama, but they weren’t certain about his ability to don the presidential cloak.
Edwards has been ratcheting up his rhetoric against Obama on the campaign trail, accusing him of being a "candidate of change" in name only. According to The Hill:
Edwards, the party’s vice presidential nominee in 2004, said this week that the country needs more than rhetoric about change in what was viewed as a jab at Obama.
Obama hasn't helped his campaign, either. His latest blunder occurred last week, when Obama was interviewed on the Daily Show, by Jon Stewart.
The Chicago Tribune reported Obama's slip as follows:
Barack Obama took the oblique reference to new heights on the Daily Show last night, when host Jon Stewart asked how the young Democratic presidential candidate plans to challenge the notion that he is inexperienced.
"When people talk about experience, what they really want to know is, 'Does he have good judgment?'" Obama said.
One hopes that more experience means better judgment, he said, but "everybody knows a lot of 50-, 60- and 70-year-olds that don't have good judgment, because they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again."
Obama didn't have to say the words "Hillary Clinton" for any reasonable viewer to think, "Hmmm, Hillary's in that age range now, isn't she?"
[emphasis added]
Actually, Obama, not everyone does know "a lot of 50-, 60- and 70-year-olds that don't have good judgment, because they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again." Since when was a person's judgment correlated to their age? There are plenty of adults in their 20's, 30's and 40's who demonstrate bad judgment and keep making the same mistakes over and over (Lindsay Lohan, anyone? Pac-Man Jones? Paris Hilton? Charlie Sheen?)
It's not an issue of age, it's an issue of self-discipline. It's a shame Obama hasn't shown more of it on the campaign trail. And if Obama was targeting someone specifically, why didn't he mention her/him by name? What's with the lame passive-aggressiveness?
Coincidentally, the Obama campaign announced last week that Obama will not be participating in any additional primary debates, because Obama feels that there are too many debates. Obama rejected an invitation to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) debate, and it's hard not to wonder why.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s decision to opt out of all but a handful of appearances with his opponents this fall means an influential Iowa audience will lose the chance to judge him alongside his rivals next month.
Obama plans to skip AARP’s Sept. 20 forum in Davenport, where New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will address about 2,400 Iowa seniors and a national public television audience.
The decision to not attend the AARP event, aimed at issues important to people 50 and older, could nag at the Illinois senator, some Democrat activists and political observers said. AARP is a national association formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons. [snip]
Obama also has skipped some events in Iowa and elsewhere that would have put him on the same stage as his opponents, including the Iowa Democratic Party’s annual summer banquet in June.
That event drew five candidates and an audience of 1,000 of Iowa’s most influential party leaders.
Obama does not plan to attend a candidate forum Monday in Cedar Rapids to discuss fighting cancer. The forum, hosted by Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong’s Livestrong Foundation, will include Clinton, Edwards, Richardson and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich. A Republican event Tuesday will include Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The AARP forum is expected to focus on issues such as health care and retirement security, top concerns for Iowa’s 50-and-older crowd.
That group also has carried disproportionate clout in recent caucuses, according to Iowa Democratic Party statistics.
In 2004, 64 percent of the people who participated in the Democratic presidential caucuses were 50 or older. In 2000, the figure was 63 percent.
The race should really heat up after Labor Day, when America returns from its summer vacation, heads indoors, and really begins to tune into the campaign.
SOURCES:
http://thehill.com/...
http://desmoinesregister.com/...
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/...